Francisco Zagmutt

Managing director, EpiX Analytics

 

Dr. Francisco Zagmutt, DVM, MPVM, PhD, specializes in risk modeling and epidemiology and has conducted work that directly informed regulatory policies in the United states and abroad. Dr. Zagmutt has worked in multiple health-related areas such as nutritional epidemiology, food safety, infectious disease epidemiology, antimicrobial resistance, public health, One Health, outcomes research, and early drug development. 

Francisco is a managing director at EpiX Analytics and affiliate faculty at Colorado State University, where he also lectures in Risk Management. Francisco is an appointed member of the US National Advisory Committee on Microbiological Criteria for Foods where he provides impartial scientific advice to multiple US federal agencies.

 

 

From evidence to predictions: disentangling the modeling methods used to quantify and forecast dietary health impacts

Epidemiological evidence is only the starting point to quantify dietary health impacts and how trends and changes in diet and demographics can affect future disease burden. This talk will provide an intuitive, easy-on-the-math introduction to the modeling methods commonly used to estimate how diets affect health, and also to forecast how different dietary changes can potentially affect future burden of disease at national and global levels. Examples from the Global Burden of Disease project, the EAT-Lancet report, and a recent Norwegian report on sustainable diets will be used to illustrate the main aspects driving dietary health predictions, such as quality of evidence, key modeling assumptions, and the handling of statistical uncertainty.